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Economy prediction markets
Macroeconomic releases, central bank decisions and recession risk.
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Best platforms for economy markets
Kalshi
4.7/5The first CFTC-regulated event contract exchange in the United States.
Regulated US event contracts CFTC-regulated
ForecastEx
4.4/5An exchange-grade forecast market owned by Interactive Brokers.
Brokerage-grade access via Interactive Brokers CFTC-regulated
Example market types
- Fed rate decisions
- CPI prints
- Unemployment thresholds
- GDP surprises
How pricing works
Economy markets are priced between one and ninety-nine cents per contract. The price reflects the market's collective probability that the underlying event will occur. A 64-cent Yes price means traders are collectively assigning a 64 percent likelihood to the outcome.
Liquidity, news flow and the time remaining to settlement all influence how quickly prices move. Highly-followed economy events tend to have tighter spreads and more depth.
Risk warning. Event contracts are financial instruments. You can lose your full premium. Trade only where legally permitted in your jurisdiction. This is not investment, legal or tax advice.