💹
Financial events prediction markets
Earnings, IPOs, M&A and credit events without trading the underlying security.
Editorial disclosure. HunchMarkets may earn a commission when readers sign up via our links. Our rankings, ratings and methodology are decided independently of commercial relationships.
Best platforms for financial events markets
ForecastEx
4.4/5An exchange-grade forecast market owned by Interactive Brokers.
Brokerage-grade access via Interactive Brokers CFTC-regulated
Kalshi
4.7/5The first CFTC-regulated event contract exchange in the United States.
Regulated US event contracts CFTC-regulated
Example market types
- S&P close above level
- Earnings surprises
- IPO pricing
- Credit downgrades
How pricing works
Financial events markets are priced between one and ninety-nine cents per contract. The price reflects the market's collective probability that the underlying event will occur. A 64-cent Yes price means traders are collectively assigning a 64 percent likelihood to the outcome.
Liquidity, news flow and the time remaining to settlement all influence how quickly prices move. Highly-followed financial events events tend to have tighter spreads and more depth.
Risk warning. Event contracts are financial instruments. You can lose your full premium. Trade only where legally permitted in your jurisdiction. This is not investment, legal or tax advice.