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Politics prediction markets
Elections, legislation, confirmation votes and policy decisions.
Editorial disclosure. HunchMarkets may earn a commission when readers sign up via our links. Our rankings, ratings and methodology are decided independently of commercial relationships.
Best platforms for politics markets
Kalshi
4.7/5The first CFTC-regulated event contract exchange in the United States.
Regulated US event contracts CFTC-regulated
Polymarket
4.3/5The largest crypto-settled prediction market for global events.
Deepest liquidity and largest market variety Offshore
Example market types
- Presidential election winner
- Senate control
- Supreme Court rulings
- Cabinet nominations
How pricing works
Politics markets are priced between one and ninety-nine cents per contract. The price reflects the market's collective probability that the underlying event will occur. A 64-cent Yes price means traders are collectively assigning a 64 percent likelihood to the outcome.
Liquidity, news flow and the time remaining to settlement all influence how quickly prices move. Highly-followed politics events tend to have tighter spreads and more depth.
Risk warning. Event contracts are financial instruments. You can lose your full premium. Trade only where legally permitted in your jurisdiction. This is not investment, legal or tax advice.